By Leo Morgenstern | at
The Orioles will be one of the most fascinating teams to watch ahead of the trade deadline. They currently boast a one-game lead over the Guardians for the best record in the American League and a 1.5-game lead over the Yankees for first place in the AL East. Thus, they fit the criteria for major buyers; the O’s are undeniably one of the best teams in baseball, but they still have things worth fighting for down the stretch. What’s more, prospect evaluators widely agree that Baltimore has one of the deepest and most talented farm systems in the game, in addition to a logjam of talented young players on the major league roster. They should be able to outbid just about anyone to land their ideal trade targets in the coming days.
Yet, precisely because of all that talent, the Orioles might also be sellers at the deadline. According to Jeff Passan of ESPN, Baltimore is willing to discuss trades for Ryan Mountcastle and Cedric Mullins, a pair of veterans who have been with this team since it was one of the worst in baseball. It’s rare to see a team with World Series aspirations trade proven, cost-controlled players at the deadline, but the Orioles can afford to part with Mountcastle and Mullins without compromising anything. Indeed, they might get even stronger by clearing up room on a crowded roster.
It wasn’t so long ago that Mullins was one of Baltimore’s best players. He earned down-ballot MVP votes during a career year in 2021 and followed that up with a solid all-around season in 2022. However, his offensive and defensive numbers both took a turn for the worse in 2023, and that trend has continued into 2024, his age-29 season. Mullins is batting .214 with a 79 wRC+. Despite his perfect fielding percentage, he has put up just 1 OAA (he had six last year and nine the year before). In addition, his arm strength has fallen below average, according to Statcast. Just about the only area where Mullins has provided above-average production is on the bases. He has 16 steals and ranks among the top 15 AL players in FanGraphs’ baserunning metric (BsR).
It might seem far too soon for the Orioles to give up on a 29-year-old center fielder with MVP votes in his past, but given the sheer amount of talented outfielders at Baltimore’s disposal, the team can hardly afford to keep giving so much playing time to a player who is providing so little. Anthony Santander, Colton Cowser, and Heston Kjerstad all deserve regular playing time, while Kyle Stowers and Connor Norby are a couple of promising options at Triple-A. There aren’t a ton of center fielders in that mix, but Cowser has played phenomenal defense in left this season; he could slide over to center and open up his corner spot for a bigger bat.
Mountcastle, 27, is having a perfectly serviceable season, with 12 home runs and a 109 wRC+. Those aren’t bad numbers, by any means, but contending teams generally have higher expectations at first base, and Mountcastle’s 111 wRC+ over the past four seasons doesn’t exactly suggest that better days are ahead. Thus, if Mountcastle is preventing players like Kjerstad, and eventually Coby Mayo and Samuel Basallo, from getting regular playing time, he might be doing more harm than good for the Orioles.
Still, considering his consistently above-average offensive performance in all five seasons of his big league career, Mountcastle would be a welcome addition to plenty of contending teams. With All-Star first basem*n Pete Alonso, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Yandy Díaz unlikely to be dealt, Mountcastle, under team control through 2026, could be an interesting (and cheaper) alternative for a team in need of a right-handed bat. Meanwhile, Mullins could be an intriguing buy-low candidate for a team that thinks it can help him rediscover his All-Star form. He is not eligible for free agency until after the 2025 season.
The Orioles certainly don’t have to trade either Mountcastle or Mullins, and, perhaps they won’t unless GM Mike Elias receives an overwhelming offer. However, trading one or both of the veterans could allow the O’s to recoup some of the young talent they will part with in other deadline trades. While neither player will command a massive return, Baltimore might still prefer to swap them for prospects rather than continue to run them out in place of better options or, eventually, stash them on the bench.
